Is the Growing Aggressiveness in NFL Play-Calling Necessary?

By: Lior Lampert

Photo Credit : Jacob Kupferman/Copyright 2021 The Associated Press.

I for one, am a firm believer in listening to what the data says and trusting the process when it comes to how aggressive an NFL coach should be in certain scenarios. If the analytics suggest a team should attempt a 2-point conversion and/or whether it makes sense for a team to attempt a fourth-down conversion, then the coaches should trust the numbers. The National Football League has an ample sample size to use for reference when further analyzing the decision-making process. Analytics are supposed to be used to our advantage in the sense that if it works out, a team's chances of victory increase exponentially without drastically increasing the team's chance to lose. If it doesn’t work out and the chances of winning were not severely hampered as indicated by some of the statistics featured, then why not at the very least give it a shot?

With the growing use of advanced analytics in the NFL, it has been discovered that going for 2 when down 14 points late in the game is the exact type of low-risk, high-reward scenario that can change the outcome of an entire game if the conversion attempt is successful. If a team scores eight points on the aforementioned drive and they get the ball back later in the game, a successful extra point conversion at the conclusion of another touchdown drive simply wins the game. Thus, avoiding overtime and the possibility of not getting the ball back for a chance to win the game.

Personally, I feel as though teams will and should only continue to be more aggressive in this aspect. The NFL has implemented a new postseason rule in recent weeks which gives both teams an opportunity to touch the ball in overtime, which I for one am a big fan of. Why shouldn't both teams be given a chance when your season is on the line? Although, if the team who gets the ball first scores a touchdown and attempts a successful 2-point conversion, the game is over. If they chose to kick the extra point instead, then the other team gets a chance to tie or win the game on the following possession. Coaches can now choose how aggressive they want to be in an overtime period of a postseason game, when it is win or go home. I for one think it only further amplifies and intensifies what is already the one of the biggest stages in the history of sport.

If a coach is confident in their offense and wants to put the ball in their best players' hands on that side of the field for a chance to end the game while leaving no doubt because the numbers suggest it, whose to blame them for making that call? If a coach trusts their defense who has been analytically and fundamentally sound all year to let the opponent’s offense see the field, why not? It is a fascinating rule that I am excited to see come into effect this year, considering how in recent years teams such as the Buffalo Bills have had their seasons cut short due to not even being able to touch the ball in an overtime period.